shinobi
Randall Weber
Forum Dictator
Posts: 4,721
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Post by shinobi on Mar 27, 2024 11:27:17 GMT
Corsi has much, much more relevance than plus/minus.
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Post by bobness on Mar 27, 2024 11:36:13 GMT
Corsi has much, much more relevance than plus/minus. I’ll be happy for the EIHL to make Corsi available. 👍
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iginla
Chick Zamick
Posts: 13,422
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Post by iginla on Mar 27, 2024 12:31:07 GMT
Corsi has much, much more relevance than plus/minus. I’ll be happy for the EIHL to make Corsi available. 👍 Lol 🤣 Maybe in about 2040 they might get round to it,when they’ve sorted the officiating and goal line technology out first !
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Post by Bagheera on Mar 27, 2024 12:51:14 GMT
You’re getting far too hung up on +/- stats. Yo me it’s the most pointless stat as it provides absolutely no context to anything. It’s as pointless as xG is in football You can argue all day about it. At the end of the day, a simple indicator of the relative “scoriness” of a player while participating in the game is useful, if only as a start point. Yes it does depend in the team in general and the team mates, but you can also look at it within a team. There’s a reason Otto is a positive and Lemay has the worst record in the league, whilst being on the same team. That will be something I look at when the season is done. You can do all sorts of more complicated things like Corsi per 60 and all that, and can tie yourself in knots (like the offside rule in football, which was blunt, but simple, so had to be revised, now your backside can put you offside…) so but fundamentally, you want to know, in stats, what happens in the game when they are actually out there, on ice? Raw +/- is the start of that journey. Like when Panthers had Andy Sertich as “Most consistent player” at the year end awards when I started my +/- stattage when the league didn’t. Most consistently scored on, it turns out. Other opinions are available. I agree overall. Plus minus will never be able to paint a full picture without watching the players play, but the are a good indicator, especially in the extremes. Neill has horrible +/- but has context around minutes on the ice and on a team generally too leaky. Lemay is a case where they do paint more of a picture. That exreme a stat is just horrific and hints at what I believe to be the bigger problem with Panthers D. Our Dmen get a rough ride quite often, however I like to refer to D more in the team context. I will stand by my view that our Dmen as a collective are one of the best we've seeb in Nottingham in some time. They are hugely impacted by the forwards, either they are lazy, or the systems to how we opperate as a team just dont work. Then when you add in 2 leaky goalies it's very tough for them to be perceived as doing a good job. Of course there are mistakes in them aswell, but I think overall they are a decent group. Calling Ryzcek and McGurty duds is miles from the truth in my eyes. Would I upgrade some of the D? Yes. Duds? No. I was really suprised to see people pile in to Tetlow at the weekend too. Clearly he made a big error, but overall he is much improved and if he can be kept aswell as Hazeldine with the same set up as this year Id be happy. Carry an extra Brit like we have as somebodys always injured. If you end up with all Brits available you've probably got at least 1 import out too. Chances are, a spare Brit wouldn't sit all that much. Back to +/- briefly. It's also the big problem with the likes of Welsh, Anderson & Pare. Not scoring many points but all very much in the negative. Anderson -20 and Pare -12. Just not bringing enough overall.
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Post by bobness on Mar 27, 2024 13:07:09 GMT
Indeed. Some of the backchecking this year has been, erm, sub-optimal, I'd venture... Interestingly, the forwards who I see busting a gut shift after shift in all areas of the ice generally aren't the ones with poor +/-. I wonder...
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Post by bobness on Mar 27, 2024 13:20:29 GMT
Corsi has much, much more relevance than plus/minus. There are the stats out there, (e.g.) Joe Mcciag on twitter seems to have a handle on all kinds of numbers that aren't publicly available (including icetime split by manpower and hits) but I assume that costs money. And given some of the shot plots and icetime stats I've seen so far, they could do with a bit of work to get them a little tighter before we start on other more esoteric things. (e.g. TOI for the last Steelers game. Panthers took 1 minor all game, which was unconverted, so total TOI should be 298 minutes exactly. (5 skaters, for 60 minutes, less 2 minutes, plus nothing for goalie pulled time.) Total TOI per player adds to 295 minutes and 14 seconds. And McKenzie was on for at least 2 shifts vs Flames (IIRC) recently and yet went un-noticed by the TOI recorders. Lunsjo's goal vs Steelers was scored from the left face off dot, virtually, but is recorded as from inside the right circle, SW of the dot. I'm very grateful for what I can get, don't get me wrong, though.
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iginla
Chick Zamick
Posts: 13,422
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Post by iginla on Mar 27, 2024 13:42:27 GMT
You can argue all day about it. At the end of the day, a simple indicator of the relative “scoriness” of a player while participating in the game is useful, if only as a start point. Yes it does depend in the team in general and the team mates, but you can also look at it within a team. There’s a reason Otto is a positive and Lemay has the worst record in the league, whilst being on the same team. That will be something I look at when the season is done. You can do all sorts of more complicated things like Corsi per 60 and all that, and can tie yourself in knots (like the offside rule in football, which was blunt, but simple, so had to be revised, now your backside can put you offside…) so but fundamentally, you want to know, in stats, what happens in the game when they are actually out there, on ice? Raw +/- is the start of that journey. Like when Panthers had Andy Sertich as “Most consistent player” at the year end awards when I started my +/- stattage when the league didn’t. Most consistently scored on, it turns out. Other opinions are available. I agree overall. Plus minus will never be able to paint a full picture without watching the players play, but the are a good indicator, especially in the extremes. Neill has horrible +/- but has context around minutes on the ice and on a team generally too leaky. Lemay is a case where they do paint more of a picture. That exreme a stat is just horrific and hints at what I believe to be the bigger problem with Panthers D. Our Dmen get a rough ride quite often, however I like to refer to D more in the team context. I will stand by my view that our Dmen as a collective are one of the best we've seeb in Nottingham in some time. They are hugely impacted by the forwards, either they are lazy, or the systems to how we opperate as a team just dont work. Then when you add in 2 leaky goalies it's very tough for them to be perceived as doing a good job. Of course there are mistakes in them aswell, but I think overall they are a decent group. Calling Ryzcek and McGurty duds is miles from the truth in my eyes. Would I upgrade some of the D? Yes. Duds? No. I was really suprised to see people pile in to Tetlow at the weekend too. Clearly he made a big error, but overall he is much improved and if he can be kept aswell as Hazeldine with the same set up as this year Id be happy. Carry an extra Brit like we have as somebodys always injured. If you end up with all Brits available you've probably got at least 1 import out too. Chances are, a spare Brit wouldn't sit all that much. Back to +/- briefly. It's also the big problem with the likes of Welsh, Anderson & Pare. Not scoring many points but all very much in the negative. Anderson -20 and Pare -12. Just not bringing enough overall. Agreed that lazy forwards and a poor goalie can affect players stats,however then you have a pretty regular D pairing like Neill and Caruso playing together but one has a horrible -20 whilst the other is only -5 so that’s rather strange.
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float
Pat Casey
Posts: 214
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Post by float on Mar 27, 2024 14:06:43 GMT
Some of the backchecking this year has been, erm, sub-optimal, I'd venture... Yep, for me, our best back-checking forward is Hugo Roy. The amount of times I've seen his chase down a player after we've lost the puck is countless. That is also reflected in his stats. It's crucial we do everything we can to keep him if he wants to stay.
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Post by bobness on Mar 28, 2024 9:13:16 GMT
Back to +/- briefly. It's also the big problem with the likes of Welsh, Anderson & Pare. Not scoring many points but all very much in the negative. Anderson -20 and Pare -12. Just not bringing enough overall. Agreed that lazy forwards and a poor goalie can affect players stats,however then you have a pretty regular D pairing like Neill and Caruso playing together but one has a horrible -20 whilst the other is only -5 so that’s rather strange.[/quote] To that end, Neill and Caruso have the following stats (adjusted by me due to EIHL errors, so differ a little) Individually, so far Neill 37 +s, 57 -s for -20 Caruso 27 +s, 33 -s for -6 On ice together, they're -7 each, from 33 goals scored or conceded. +13 scored and -20 conceded. Almost all of their playing together has been done this calendar year, only 4 goals (2 scored, 2 conceded) were recorded when on ice together in 2023. Prior to that it looks like Caruso most often played with Ryczek, and Neill with Tetlow and Despres.
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iginla
Chick Zamick
Posts: 13,422
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Post by iginla on Mar 28, 2024 9:54:07 GMT
Back to +/- briefly. It's also the big problem with the likes of Welsh, Anderson & Pare. Not scoring many points but all very much in the negative. Anderson -20 and Pare -12. Just not bringing enough overall. Agreed that lazy forwards and a poor goalie can affect players stats,however then you have a pretty regular D pairing like Neill and Caruso playing together but one has a horrible -20 whilst the other is only -5 so that’s rather strange. To that end, Neill and Caruso have the following stats (adjusted by me due to EIHL errors, so differ a little) Individually, so far Neill 37 +s, 57 -s for -20 Caruso 27 +s, 33 -s for -6 On ice together, they're -7 each, from 33 goals scored or conceded. +13 scored and -20 conceded. Almost all of their playing together has been done this calendar year, only 4 goals (2 scored, 2 conceded) were recorded when on ice together in 2023. Prior to that it looks like Caruso most often played with Ryczek, and Neill with Tetlow and Despres. [/quote] So I guess what that tells us Bob is that Caruso is better defensively than Neill which is likely to be expected looking at respective CV’s. I would call one a “stud” and the other a decent/good player but both playing on a very average team. It also suggests that Ryczek is a better Dman than Tetlow and an unfit Despres,however the latter has improved a lot since he got fitter and also got benched for taking 4 penalties in a game. (All just my opinion of course) 😉
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Post by bobness on Mar 28, 2024 10:08:57 GMT
We can agree on the first bit, Caruso is a more defensive minded D man, for sure. As to Ryczek being "better" than Tetlow, that I'm not so sure on, they are wholly different players.
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yeti
Robert Lachowicz
Posts: 416
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Post by yeti on Mar 28, 2024 10:29:47 GMT
We can agree on the first bit, Caruso is a more defensive minded D man, for sure. As to Ryczek being "better" than Tetlow, that I'm not so sure on, they are wholly different players. That suggests to me that Neil and Curuso are a good pairing. That Caruso covers the D whilst letting Neil be more a creative attacking D man. Obviously they are still minus as a pairing due to the whole team being bad defensively. This shows the majority of Neil's +- is from playing with other D men who probably do not cover as well as Caruso when Neil is involved offensively.
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yeti
Robert Lachowicz
Posts: 416
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Post by yeti on Mar 28, 2024 10:36:21 GMT
I generally like our D. It's just crap that at a time when we got to having 7 D available for the push to make the playoffs we instantly had injury after injury and ended up with only 4 and then 3 D.
I never want to see another season like this one.
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shinobi
Randall Weber
Forum Dictator
Posts: 4,721
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Post by shinobi on Mar 28, 2024 12:32:28 GMT
I never want to see another season like this one. Amen brother.
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