The Cage Prediction League - What Format?

[kievthegreat]

Created this thread to discuss how people want to run the prediction league. I really didn't give it enough thought last month so I want to establish the rules and then see if we can maintain it through the year.

First Option is that we keep the same format as October predictions, where we just predict total points tallies, with a goal prediction to use as a tie breaker. I think we need to agree a scoring system (I'll post my thoughts on this seperate), but that way we can include the last month in our final standings, plus it's very easy and not too taxing.

Second option is go nuclear and restart from scratch and do it 'properly' by game. I like this in that it's more specific and you get rightly rewarded if you predict an unexpected result. However I'm pretty happy to go with whatever the group wants.

If you do vote, please drop in and make any suggestions, ideas for scoring systems, fun novelty predictions, etc...

[kievthegreat]

Proposed Scoring System for Option 1:

Available points = the number of games taking place that month

Correct predictions take all available points
For each point your prediction is off, you lose 1 point.

2 Bonus points for correctly predicting the number of points. If there is a tie, Goals scored is used as a tiebreaker.

[Yotes]

I'm happy to wrongly predict every single game this year, but I wonder if keeping track of it will become arduous in the extreme. At least with monthly you'll get one set of predictions at the end of each previous month and have to deal with them.

If we were to go with monthly, I think I'd aim for something like spik suggested, with the goal being up be as close to zero as possible, you gain points for the over/under. Maybe the same on goals, so the perfect season would be zero point difference, zero goal difference. Some sort of bonus system for winning a month by being closest could be in there too.

If per game then x points for a correct prediction, and more for a perfect prediction. Standard sort of thing.

[spik]

I like the idea of predicting the month as we had just done (who won? bobness over Yotes I'd presume with the tie breaker) creating a league,(so can this just continue? adding the scores from the next few months to this October one) you may have a poor start of a month but could get better and climb the league with better points calculated , OR as I suggested for example if the team got 12 points in that month and you had guessed 10 or 14 you'd get 2 points but the objective is clearly to get the least number of points in order to win. So top of the table shows a lesser number than the bottom, a reverse of a normal league table in sport. A bit like the 'pointless' TV programme.

Prefer to not do this game by game as its not only a chore for the organiser but people like me may forget to send in predictions or can't be bothered to do all games, ie) the first option is easier to deal with.

[kievthegreat]

Nov 1, 2021 21:42:11 GMT spik said:

I like the idea of predicting the month as we had just done (who won? bobness over Yotes I'd presume with the tie breaker) creating a league,(so can this just continue? adding the scores from the next few months to this October one) you may have a poor start of a month but could get better and climb the league with better points calculated , OR as I suggested for example if the team got 12 points in that month and you had guessed 10 or 14 you'd get 2 points but the objective is clearly to get the least number of points in order to win. So top of the table shows a lesser number than the bottom, a reverse of a normal league table in sport. A bit like the 'pointless' TV programme.

Prefer to not do this game by game as its not only a chore for the organiser but people like me may forget to send in predictions or can't be bothered to do all games, ie) the first option is easier to deal with.

I was thinking if we did predictions for each game (by which I mean guessing scorelines), I'd ask for people to submit for the Month still. It would make life easier to collate it, plus I think you would have less people forgetting. i.e the exact things you pointed out!

[spik]

Nov 1, 2021 22:52:48 GMT kievthegreat said:

Nov 1, 2021 21:42:11 GMT spik said:

I like the idea of predicting the month as we had just done (who won? bobness over Yotes I'd presume with the tie breaker) creating a league,(so can this just continue? adding the scores from the next few months to this October one) you may have a poor start of a month but could get better and climb the league with better points calculated , OR as I suggested for example if the team got 12 points in that month and you had guessed 10 or 14 you'd get 2 points but the objective is clearly to get the least number of points in order to win. So top of the table shows a lesser number than the bottom, a reverse of a normal league table in sport. A bit like the 'pointless' TV programme.

Prefer to not do this game by game as its not only a chore for the organiser but people like me may forget to send in predictions or can't be bothered to do all games, ie) the first option is easier to deal with.

I was thinking if we did predictions for each game (by which I mean guessing scorelines), I'd ask for people to submit for the Month still. It would make life easier to collate it, plus I think you would have less people forgetting. i.e the exact things you pointed out!

Indeed, bar date changes etc.....I'm just looking on guessing the points haul and goals scored (as a decider) is easier on my brain too. Particularly as I can't get my head around the table where I got 4 and 3 points respectively on the 'what it would look like' with the new presumed calculations...lol
Assumed in October also YOU were the outright winner per 'nearest to points gained' as suggested at the start with goals being the decider. See my chart of placings on the other thread. Your not doing an Elite and changing the rules are you half way through....

[bobness]

Monthly "in total" predictions for me based on agreed games to be played. Predicting each game will be tricky/time consuming to track?
Like the idea of targeting zero points for a perfect prediction and gaining points for being out.

So, if I predict 10 points and 30 goals, and it's 9 points and 32 goals, I score 3.

I'd also like to make it mandatory that Pidge and iggy join in the fun. They've got so much to say normally, and are infallible, so this should be right up their street.

[Jord v4]

Can we have a points system where I can make the same nonsensical predictions but won't finish last?

[bobness]

Nov 2, 2021 16:34:40 GMT Jord v4 said:

Can we have a points system where I can make the same nonsensical predictions but won't finish last?

You need to be in politics for that.