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Post by bobness on Apr 3, 2018 14:58:46 GMT
As some of you have already twigged, I've been doing some number crunching this season, all season, mostly to see if I could create the team's +/- numbers (to which the answer is "Yes") and as a result have a lot of other things recorded. I've recorded data points for all 380 goals for and against (that's something like 1,800 individual records, with only 2 even slightly "less than 100% certain" data points) so now's the time to share a bit.
So...
Panthers finished 4th this year, same as last, but at 1.268 points per game, better than last year's 1.115.
Panthers goal difference this year was +26 (+28 at home, -2 away) best in the league was Cardiff at +85, then Sheffield at +77. With the greatest of respect to the Flames, Guildford both scored more and conceded less than Panthers this year.
That +26 is made up of, goals for and against... (Apologies for the formatting...)
Goal Type, For, Against, Diff
ENG 5on6 5 7 -2
EV 3on3 4 1 3
EV 4on4 2 4 -2
EV 5on5 142 108 34
EV 6on5 3 4 -1
PPG 4on3 1 1 0
PPG 5on3 4 7 -3
PPG 5on4 33 40 -7
PPG 6on4 1 1
PS 2 3 -1
SHG 4on5 5 2 3
SHG ENG 4on6 1 0 1
203 177 26
The standout stat there is the 34 more goals scored for than against 5 on 5.
Period by period, what's clear is that Panthers start well, indeed total goal difference in period 1 alone is +24.
The PP and PK numbers are basically dead on average for the league, not "worst in the league" as has recently been alleged. The outliers are Devils' PP at an impressive 28.5% and Steelers' PK at a phenomenal 88.24%.
+/- wise, it may come as a shock to some to note that as a team, Panthers went a combined +171 for the league season. (That said, +120 of those came in all games vs Capitals.) All players who ended the season were a net +, except one.
Leading the team was Evan Mosey at an impressive +25 (then Phillips +19, Pither +17) , bottom of the pack was David Clarke at -8 (then Sauve +1, Brown and Farmer +3).
Clarkey's last league campaign wasn't his best by a long chalk. Not a single even strength goal all year, and only 6 in total. But that should in no way denigrate from a "Hall of Fame" career.
Injury wise, Panthers lost 67 man games due to injury, of which 17 were to Jordan Kelsall, so only 50 to the "full time" (no disrespect intended) players, which seems to me to be quite low, intuitively. 7 man games were lost in the netminder position by Galbraith.
Average bench size of skaters dressed was 18.54, lowest was still 17, which, for me, blows any "understrength" arguments out of the water. Missing the odd player, yes. "Understrength"? Not really for me, but other opinions are available.
Panthers lost 7 man-games to suspension - 2 Sauve, 1 Bussieres, 2 Lee, 2 Gagnon.
PP goal against wise, Panthers were scored on while Yann Sauve was in the box 10 times in the season (9 x 5 on 4, 1 x 5 on 3). No-one else was in for more than 4 (Gagnon, Bussieres, Lee). Of the 7 5 on 3 goals that Panthers conceded, 4 occurred with Tim Billingsley in the box as one of the 2 penalised Panthers.
If only we had stuff like this for the league as a whole...
Anyone want to know anything in particular? I can cut up any stats pretty much any way anyone might want, as I have them game by game.
(If anyone thinks there's an error anywhere, let me know.)
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Post by ashfieldpanther on Apr 3, 2018 15:28:36 GMT
This is fascinating, thank you for putting in the time and effort, and without being driven by an agenda. You don't show the period by period scores anywhere, just mention the first period difference. It would be interesting to see scores broken down period by period. I have remarked on another thread the number of times we concede penalties / goals in the last 2 minutes of a period, which has led to a goal, and in the case of a final period, cost us a point.
I guess what it doesn't (and can't) compare is the effect of the CHL campaign on the league, and whether it would have possible to sign players on our budget level capable of maintaining a high level throughout both campaigns.
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Post by dill1015 on Apr 3, 2018 15:48:06 GMT
If u can break the general stats down by thirds of a season id be interested.
Im guessing good first third
Terrible middle
And decent last third.
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iginla
Chick Zamick
Posts: 13,422
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Post by iginla on Apr 3, 2018 16:07:20 GMT
Average points gained per game increasing is a stat I would have expected,considering we had more games this year against the smaller teams.
Can we see points gained against each team to see who our bogey teams were ?
And if we took Edinburgh out of the equation,does that put a different complexion on stats.
I’m guessing it would ?
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Post by bobness on Apr 3, 2018 16:23:30 GMT
This is fascinating, thank you for putting in the time and effort, and without being driven by an agenda. You don't show the period by period scores anywhere, just mention the first period difference. It would be interesting to see scores broken down period by period. I have remarked on another thread the number of times we concede penalties / goals in the last 2 minutes of a period, which has led to a goal, and in the case of a final period, cost us a point. I guess what it doesn't (and can't) compare is the effect of the CHL campaign on the league, and whether it would have possible to sign players on our budget level capable of maintaining a high level throughout both campaigns. League season only... Very quickly, first period +24 (71-47), second +3 (68-65), third -4 (56-60), OT -3 (3-6). I don't have times to the second, but do have minutes. So if I sort all the goals against conceded in minutes 19/20, 39/40, 59/60 (not including ENG/6on5s or PPGs, as these are part and parcel of the game) I get 14 times. 5 in minutes 19/20, 7 in 39/40, and 2 in 59/60. There were 4 PPGs conceded in minutes 59/60. 1 was a GTG, but Panthers got the extra point, 2 didn't affect the result at all, 1 cost the game (at Belfast 13 January). Then there was the Sheffield one in the Cup... There were 2 PPGs conceded in minutes 19/20 and 2 in 39/40. |
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Post by bobness on Apr 3, 2018 16:37:29 GMT
If u can break the general stats down by thirds of a season id be interested. Im guessing good first third Terrible middle And decent last third. Not bad.  W-OTW-PSW-L-OTL-PSL, Points, Best point player, Best/worst +/- player..... goes like this First third 8-4-2-3-1-0, 29 points, Perlini 23 points, Mosey +6, Clarke -7. Second third 6-1-0-10-1-1, 16 points, Sauve 14 points, Betteridge +6, Perlini -12. Third third 11-1-0-5-0-2, 26 points, Pither 17 points, Spang +19, Farmer +2. |
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Post by bobness on Apr 3, 2018 16:54:02 GMT
Average points gained per game increasing is a stat I would have expected,considering we had more games this year against the smaller teams. Can we see points gained against each team to see who our bogey teams were ? And if we took Edinburgh out of the equation,does that put a different complexion on stats. I’m guessing it would ? Belfast 8 games, 8 points. Braehead 4 games, 6 points. Cardiff 8 games, 6 points. Coventry 4 games, 8 points. Dundee 4 games, 6 points. Edinburgh 4 games, 8 points. Fife 4 games, 4 points. Guildford 4 games, 6 points. Manchester 4 games, 5 points. MK 4 games 8 points. Sheffield 8 games, 6 points. If we take Caps out of the stats, it does make a difference, but I'm not sure what that would "mean"? |
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harvey
Jade Galbraith
Posts: 16 
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Post by harvey on Apr 3, 2018 17:05:48 GMT
Thank you in advance for your time.
Curious to see points, say top 5 guys, not counting games against Edinburgh.
Top plus minus, say top 10,again not counting edinburgh.
Again much appreciated
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Post by wgray on Apr 3, 2018 17:14:50 GMT
Have you got the ppg across all competitions, say top 10?
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Post by bobness on Apr 3, 2018 17:23:52 GMT
Thank you in advance for your time. Curious to see points, say top 5 guys, not counting games against Edinburgh. Top plus minus, say top 10,again not counting edinburgh. Again much appreciated Excluding Edinburgh, top 6 of each... Name G A POINTS Perlini 17 28 45 Derlago 14 29 43 Phillips 14 28 42 Sauve 10 25 35 Mokshantsev 16 16 32 Brown 10 20 30 Name +/- Mosey 17 Phillips 15 Pither 12 Billingsley 11 Spang 7 Vaskivuo 7 |
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Post by bobness on Apr 3, 2018 17:24:27 GMT
Have you got the ppg across all competitions, say top 10? Points per game or powerplay goals? |
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iginla
Chick Zamick
Posts: 13,422
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Post by iginla on Apr 3, 2018 17:40:45 GMT
Only 12 points out of a possible 32 against Cardiff and Sheffield.
That’s only 0.375 hockey....Ouch !
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Post by bobness on Apr 3, 2018 18:49:43 GMT
Only 12 points out of a possible 32 against Cardiff and Sheffield. That’s only 0.375 hockey....Ouch ! Exactly, they're the games you need to be getting the points at to be in with a shout at the end. Play like that and you will be 4th or so... |
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Post by wgray on Apr 3, 2018 20:28:11 GMT
Have you got the ppg across all competitions, say top 10? Points per game or powerplay goals? sorry, points per game. |
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DJP
Jade Galbraith
Posts: 82
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Post by DJP on Apr 3, 2018 20:45:20 GMT
Terrific work, bobness! Just to expand on the above, here are stats for the percentage of maximum potential points won within and outside own conference for the main contenders:
Cardiff: 66.67% within conference, 82.81% outside (overall 75.89%)
Sheffield: 45.83% within conference, 76.56% outside (overall 63.39%
Panthers: 41.67% within conference, 79.69% outside (overall 63.39%)
Belfast 58.33% within conference, 65.63% outside (overall 62.50%)
Manchester: 64.58% within conference, 58.33% vs Erhardt minus Panthers, 65.63% vs Erhardt including Panthers (overall 66.96%)
Guildford: 64.58% within conference, 25.00% vs Erhardt minus Panthers, 34.38% vs Erhardt including Panthers (overall 61.61%)
Fife: 83.33% within conference, 33.33% vs Erhardt minus Panthers, 43.75% vs Erhardt including Panthers (overall 60.71%)
The three striking points from those figures are a) Panthers' relatively poor record within their own conference, b) Belfast's relatively poor record outside their own conference, c) Manchester's very strong performance against Erhardt conference teams. Had the Storm been able to gather more points in their own and the Patton conferences, they might have been able to give Cardiff more of a run for their money. In addition, it's noticeable that Manchester, Guildford and Fife did better against Panthers than against any of the other Erhardt teams.
As you say, bobness, our league position is just about right, though with the odd goal either way in one or the other game, we could have been second or seventh (but so could several others).
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No 29
Jade Galbraith
Posts: 123
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Post by No 29 on Apr 4, 2018 7:29:16 GMT
Thanks, bobness.
Any thoughts on the goalies? Win, losses ?
I always thought with Garnett (CHL excepted) that even when he'd had a good game, he usually managed to let in at least three.
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Post by Rob Scott on Apr 4, 2018 7:33:12 GMT
As some of you have already twigged, I've been doing some number crunching this season, all season, mostly to see if I could create the team's +/- numbers (to which the answer is "Yes") and as a result have a lot of other things recorded. I've recorded data points for all 380 goals for and against (that's something like 1,800 individual records, with only 2 even slightly "less than 100% certain" data points) so now's the time to share a bit. So... Panthers finished 4th this year, same as last, but at 1.268 points per game, better than last year's 1.115. Panthers goal difference this year was +26 (+28 at home, -2 away) best in the league was Cardiff at +85, then Sheffield at +77. With the greatest of respect to the Flames, Guildford both scored more and conceded less than Panthers this year. That +26 is made up of, goals for and against... (Apologies for the formatting...) Goal Type, For, Against, Diff ENG 5on6 5 7 -2 EV 3on3 4 1 3 EV 4on4 2 4 -2 EV 5on5 142 108 34 EV 6on5 3 4 -1 PPG 4on3 1 1 0 PPG 5on3 4 7 -3 PPG 5on4 33 40 -7 PPG 6on4 1 1 PS 2 3 -1 SHG 4on5 5 2 3 SHG ENG 4on6 1 0 1 203 177 26 The standout stat there is the 34 more goals scored for than against 5 on 5. Period by period, what's clear is that Panthers start well, indeed total goal difference in period 1 alone is +24. The PP and PK numbers are basically dead on average for the league, not "worst in the league" as has recently been alleged. The outliers are Devils' PP at an impressive 28.5% and Steelers' PK at a phenomenal 88.24%. +/- wise, it may come as a shock to some to note that as a team, Panthers went a combined +171 for the league season. (That said, +120 of those came in all games vs Capitals.) All players who ended the season were a net +, except one. Leading the team was Evan Mosey at an impressive +25 (then Phillips +19, Pither +17) , bottom of the pack was David Clarke at -8 (then Sauve +1, Brown and Farmer +3). Clarkey's last league campaign wasn't his best by a long chalk. Not a single even strength goal all year, and only 6 in total. But that should in no way denigrate from a "Hall of Fame" career. Injury wise, Panthers lost 67 man games due to injury, of which 17 were to Jordan Kelsall, so only 50 to the "full time" (no disrespect intended) players, which seems to me to be quite low, intuitively. 7 man games were lost in the netminder position by Galbraith. Average bench size of skaters dressed was 18.54, lowest was still 17, which, for me, blows any "understrength" arguments out of the water. Missing the odd player, yes. "Understrength"? Not really for me, but other opinions are available. Panthers lost 7 man-games to suspension - 2 Sauve, 1 Bussieres, 2 Lee, 2 Gagnon. PP goal against wise, Panthers were scored on while Yann Sauve was in the box 10 times in the season (9 x 5 on 4, 1 x 5 on 3). No-one else was in for more than 4 (Gagnon, Bussieres, Lee). Of the 7 5 on 3 goals that Panthers conceded, 4 occurred with Tim Billingsley in the box as one of the 2 penalised Panthers. If only we had stuff like this for the league as a whole... Anyone want to know anything in particular? I can cut up any stats pretty much any way anyone might want, as I have them game by game. (If anyone thinks there's an error anywhere, let me know.) On the not being under strength part do you have the stats for results while Mosey was out injured and not replaced? |
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Post by bobness on Apr 4, 2018 7:54:57 GMT
Thanks, bobness. Any thoughts on the goalies? Win, losses ? I always thought with Garnett (CHL excepted) that even when he'd had a good game, he usually managed to let in at least three. None more than the league stats I guess. Galbraith 19-8, 2.57GAA, 92.4% SP (best in the league). Garnett 14-10, 3.33, 89.3%. IMHO, Galbraith should be re-signed and made de-facto #1 keeper. He was the best shot stopper in the league. |
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Post by bobness on Apr 4, 2018 8:19:06 GMT
On the not being under strength part do you have the stats for results while Mosey was out injured and not replaced? Mosey was out for games 20-26 (only player injured) and 37-40 (along with Spang). 20-26 Panthers went 5 regulation losses, and 1 each OTL and PSL. 37-40 Panthers were 1 win and 3 reg losses. Of course, the first absence coincided with the start of the slump, Panthers lost 3 from 4 quite a few times during the season when Mosey was playing. Quite what that "proves" is anyone's guess. For me, one player out of 20 does not make a team do that. Something else happened in that first run of games that I can only speculate on, but one player does not make the team for me, and if it did, it probably wouldn't be Mosey, who's been all over the place this year; forward, D, dominant, not so much. 12 points and +14 of his overall 32 and +25 were in the last 12 games of the season (a similar pattern for a few players, to be fair). With a skating squad of 20+ potentially, I'm no great fan of short term replacements. Generally, it's tricky to get the quality you want unless you get lucky, and by the time they're settled and anything like productive, they're gone. Juri Golicic, anyone? Petr Kalus the second time? Joe Griimaldi? |
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Post by Rob Scott on Apr 4, 2018 8:59:27 GMT
On the not being under strength part do you have the stats for results while Mosey was out injured and not replaced? Mosey was out for games 20-26 (only player injured) and 37-40 (along with Spang). 20-26 Panthers went 5 regulation losses, and 1 each OTL and PSL. 37-40 Panthers were 1 win and 3 reg losses. Of course, the first absence coincided with the start of the slump, Panthers lost 3 from 4 quite a few times during the season when Mosey was playing. Quite what that "proves" is anyone's guess. For me, one player out of 20 does not make a team do that. Something else happened in that first run of games that I can only speculate on, but one player does not make the team for me, and if it did, it probably wouldn't be Mosey, who's been all over the place this year; forward, D, dominant, not so much. 12 points and +14 of his overall 32 and +25 were in the last 12 games of the season (a similar pattern for a few players, to be fair). With a skating squad of 20+ potentially, I'm no great fan of short term replacements. Generally, it's tricky to get the quality you want unless you get lucky, and by the time they're settled and anything like productive, they're gone. Juri Golicic, anyone? Petr Kalus the second time? Joe Griimaldi? Agree, I think Panthers should have a spare import skater. |
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iginla
Chick Zamick
Posts: 13,422
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Post by iginla on Apr 4, 2018 10:26:25 GMT
On the not being under strength part do you have the stats for results while Mosey was out injured and not replaced? Mosey was out for games 20-26 (only player injured) and 37-40 (along with Spang). 20-26 Panthers went 5 regulation losses, and 1 each OTL and PSL. 37-40 Panthers were 1 win and 3 reg losses. Of course, the first absence coincided with the start of the slump, Panthers lost 3 from 4 quite a few times during the season when Mosey was playing. Quite what that "proves" is anyone's guess. For me, one player out of 20 does not make a team do that. Something else happened in that first run of games that I can only speculate on, but one player does not make the team for me, and if it did, it probably wouldn't be Mosey, who's been all over the place this year; forward, D, dominant, not so much. 12 points and +14 of his overall 32 and +25 were in the last 12 games of the season (a similar pattern for a few players, to be fair). With a skating squad of 20+ potentially, I'm no great fan of short term replacements. Generally, it's tricky to get the quality you want unless you get lucky, and by the time they're settled and anything like productive, they're gone. Juri Golicic, anyone? Petr Kalus the second time? Joe Griimaldi? I think what that tells us is that there was a lot of player “stat padding” in the last few league games against the weaker teams during our relatively easy March run in. Basically,a lot of our players were well over rated and couldn’t cut it against the 3 or 4 top teams. |
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Post by bobness on Apr 5, 2018 13:42:25 GMT
I think what that tells us is that there was a lot of player “stat padding” in the last few league games against the weaker teams during our relatively easy March run in. Basically,a lot of our players were well over rated and couldn’t cut it against the 3 or 4 top teams. But all Panthers' conference teams played the same teams the same amount of times, so I'm not sure there's much "stat padding" going on for panthers rather than anywhere else just because of timing? For example, Joey Martin scored 9 of his 73 points vs the Caps in just 4 games, and 10 vs the Steelers in 8 games. I think one of the things that Panthers lacked this year was a consistent player who could make a difference in tight games. Someone who could turn the game in a second. Think Fox, Ling, Tessier. Phillips probably should have been it, but wasn't for me. |
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