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Post by runningman22 on May 30, 2012 10:00:25 GMT
Everyone saying Braehead are favourites may be right, however having a quick look and taking some assumptions into place it may be more competitive than we think.
Firstly look at panthers fixtures and the points available, if we split the series with Sheffield and Belfast (if were serious of winning the league we should) then that’s 16 points from 16 games. Then look at the 16 games with Coventry and Cardiff we win both those series maybe win 5 of the 8 games on both that’s another 20 points. Then we sweep the Scottish division (and Hull) so that would be 5 teams 4 times so 20 wins or 40 points. That makes a total of 16+20+40 so 76 points (not taking into account OT loses etc) so feasible to get 80 points? What we got this year.
Now look at Braehead fixtures, let’s assume they sweep the Scottish conference (with Hull) that’s 32 games or 64 points. Now then against our conference maybe they level the series with Coventry and Cardiff so 8 points from the 8 games, say they take 1 win from us, 1 from Belfast, 1 from Sheffield that’s 6 points. Making a total of 64+8+6 so 78 points.
I know I may get shot down for this logic, but the league title is definitely not closed out for those teams in the southern conference. The splitting of the conferences will overall in my opinion lower the league title winning points total thus probably aiding us (80 points will probably be enough to win the league)
I understand a lot of this is beside the point as a league champion should have to play the same as every other team, I just wanted to make you all aware that before we go writing off the league as unwinnable for anyone in the southern conference it could be very close and if won by a southern conference team potentially the best ever?
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Post by harlan on May 30, 2012 10:20:44 GMT
There is no way Braehead will sweep the other Scottish teams
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Post by kezypanther on May 30, 2012 10:21:21 GMT
So braehead still have the best chance and all they have to do is win one game from the top 3 and split the series with the other two ?. Yes they will have to sweep their conference (which is Very unlikely but not impossible).
If they win the league will it be deemed as good as if say we were to win it ? And will it be viewed by us as a success ?
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Post by GuinnessMan on May 30, 2012 10:24:09 GMT
Suggestions from the clubs is that under this new format, it will be even more difficult to win 'the league', so if that does seem to be the general concencus, then IF Panthers do actually win it, then it seems to me '1956' can be well and truely buried.
If a tier 2 side end up winning it, unfortunately for them, it will be seen as a sham by most, because of the easier route available to picking up points. Should that actually happen, the 'weighting could be reduced such that you only play 6times against your opponents in your conference, and 4(as-is now proposed) against the alternate conf team. In rounded numbers, under current proposals 61% of points are available from your own conference, whilst under the 6/4 suggestion that would reduces to ~55% ... so still a bit of leg up on 'league' points but not so much.
Under the 6/4proposal league games would then reduce to 44games, thereby freeing ice time for totally independant CC games, and scope for a better Play-off series.
Any logic in that?
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Post by Rob Scott on May 30, 2012 10:24:30 GMT
There is no way Braehead will sweep the other Scottish teams Why not? They are by FAR the strongest team in division 2 as displayed below.... Braehead 66 Hull 36 Dundee 32 Edinburgh 30 Fife 22
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Post by runningman22 on May 30, 2012 10:27:53 GMT
There is no way Braehead will sweep the other Scottish teams Why not? They are by FAR the strongest team in division 2 as displayed below.... Braehead 66 Hull 36 Dundee 32 Edinburgh 30 Fife 22 They were this year and didn't sweep them, not even close. I'm not suggesting this is a fair way of choosing a league winner, just that it is still not impossible to think a southern conference team can win.
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Post by pingchowchi on May 30, 2012 10:30:08 GMT
maybe you should look at what their results were last year against the scottish teams. Again, I would bet a decent amount of money that they will not clean sweep thier conference
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Post by GuinnessMan on May 30, 2012 10:34:47 GMT
One thought/question ... could the league winner actually be a team that doesn't top a conference? eg within Conf.A, team X has the best record against their opponents inthat conf, and win conf TeamX - P32 W20 L12 pts40 TeamY - P32 W19 L13 pts38 but in 'league', with a better record against the alt conference sides TeamX - P52 W35 L17 pts70 TeamY - P52 W36 L16 pts72
seems a feasible this could actually happen (and it probably would be Panthers that win their Conference, but then lose the league due to those pesky Scots!)
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Yotes
Forum Admin
Posts: 16,424
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Post by Yotes on May 30, 2012 10:39:28 GMT
Conference placings will still use all points gained won't they?
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Post by Rob Scott on May 30, 2012 10:42:14 GMT
Conference placings will still use all points gained won't they? Wouldn't have thought so?
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Post by ted logan on May 30, 2012 10:43:25 GMT
Suggestions from the clubs is that under this new format, it will be even more difficult to win 'the league', so if that does seem to be the general concencus, then IF Panthers do actually win it, then it seems to me '1956' can be well and truely buried. If a tier 2 side end up winning it, unfortunately for them, it will be seen as a sham by most, because of the easier route available to picking up points. Should that actually happen, the 'weighting could be reduced such that you only play 6times against your opponents in your conference, and 4(as-is now proposed) against the alternate conf team. In rounded numbers, under current proposals 61% of points are available from your own conference, whilst under the 6/4 suggestion that would reduces to ~55% ... so still a bit of leg up on 'league' points but not so much. Under the 6/4proposal league games would then reduce to 44games, thereby freeing ice time for totally independant CC games, and scope for a better Play-off series. Any logic in that? Yes Gman - plenty, that's why it'll never happen
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Yotes
Forum Admin
Posts: 16,424
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Post by Yotes on May 30, 2012 10:48:21 GMT
Conference placings will still use all points gained won't they? Wouldn't have thought so? Surely it'll just be like divisions within a conference in the NHL?
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Post by runningman22 on May 30, 2012 10:48:50 GMT
Conference placings will still use all points gained won't they? Wouldn't have thought so? Surely they have to include all points in conference standings not just in conference games? Otherwise as was said above a team could win a conference but not a league title. Farce from all involved on the leagues part releasing such a small bit of information to fans for such a big change to the league format.
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Post by harlan on May 30, 2012 10:51:30 GMT
As stated Braehead didn't sweep the other Scottish teams last season and only won the Scottish mini group from Edinburgh by two or three points and that was an Edinburgh side that self imploded over the second half of the season.
Fife were the only Scottish team to win at Braehead and the two victories they had over Clan was with a weakened team and Flyers directors have gone on record as saying that Flyers will be much stronger and better prepared this season.
If Flyers or Hull end up winning the Northern conference will it still be seen as a sham? I believe that conference will be a lot more competitive than people think but will reserve judgement until the teams start announce more signings as that hasnt happened yet
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Post by Rob Scott on May 30, 2012 10:58:41 GMT
If Flyers or Hull end up winning the Northern conference will it still be seen as a sham?
It simply will not happen. Clan will win Division 2 by a large margin.
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Post by runningman22 on May 30, 2012 11:02:55 GMT
If Flyers or Hull end up winning the Northern conference will it still be seen as a sham? It simply will not happen. Clan will win Division 2 by a large margin. They may win the "northern conference" by quite a margin. And probably deservedly so. But can you see them winning the overall league title?
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Post by Rob Scott on May 30, 2012 11:09:58 GMT
If Flyers or Hull end up winning the Northern conference will it still be seen as a sham? It simply will not happen. Clan will win Division 2 by a large margin. They may win the "northern conference" by quite a margin. And probably deservedly so. But can you see them winning the overall league title? Well they will have a much better chance than in a 10 team league.... Potentially 64 comparatively easy points on offer to start with...
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Post by Johnny 5 on May 30, 2012 11:11:49 GMT
there is one point that everyone is missing, without the additional travel, the lower teams have more budget to spend on players. I cant see Braehead having a larger budget than last year as they are still in the infant stage of business, maybe this year they cut away from the Panthers purse strings, but the other teams will have more cash to play with thus spending to be more competitive.
Surely this is the whole point of have the 2 conferences.
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Post by runningman22 on May 30, 2012 11:12:55 GMT
They may win the "northern conference" by quite a margin. And probably deservedly so. But can you see them winning the overall league title? Well they will have a much better chance than in a 10 team league.... Potentially 64 comparatively easy points on offer to start with... Completely agree, and if it was down to me they should either scrap the league title or have a series to decide the league winner from the 2 conference winners. I only wanted to get the point across that although this does massively increase Braeheads chances, its not the foregone conclusion people on here seemed to think it was. If i was a gambling man, i'd put money on a southern conference team winning the league title this year.
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Post by Rob Scott on May 30, 2012 11:19:40 GMT
Well they will have a much better chance than in a 10 team league.... Potentially 64 comparatively easy points on offer to start with... Completely agree, and if it was down to me they should either scrap the league title or have a series to decide the league winner from the 2 conference winners. I only wanted to get the point across that although this does massively increase Braeheads chances, its not the foregone conclusion people on here seemed to think it was. If i was a gambling man, i'd put money on a southern conference team winning the league title this year. Fair enough. So would I but I would put money on Braehead finishing higher than last season 6th place.
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Post by kezypanther on May 30, 2012 11:39:18 GMT
Why don't they just do the logical thing and have conference winners play each other in a final game to decide winner. If a northern conference team win on overall points nobody would agree with it.
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jester
Robert Lachowicz
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Post by jester on May 30, 2012 11:44:12 GMT
Why don't they just do the logical thing and have conference winners play each other in a final game to decide winner. If a northern conference team win on overall points nobody would agree with it. I thought thats what they were doing?
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Post by GuinnessMan on May 30, 2012 12:11:20 GMT
... as it stands its simply the team with most points will win the league.
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Post by GuinnessMan on May 30, 2012 12:26:25 GMT
Taken from slapshotscotland.com/ showing how the scottish teams performed against each other last season TEAM GP W L PTS 1 Braehead Clan 18 12 6 25 2 Edinburgh Capitals 18 10 8 22 3 Dundee Stars 18 9 9 19 4 Fife Flyers 18 5 13 13
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Post by cjmatt42 on May 30, 2012 12:36:44 GMT
An idea that hasn't been mentioned I don't think, how about cross conference games count for 4 points for a win 2 points for an OT loss. This way the same number of points is available from every team to every team. Whilst still not a perfect world it surely helps balance out that gap that may be caused by Braehead having a larger amount of "easier" games.
This then helps add importance to every home and away game between clubs from opposite conferences. It will give extra reward for any of the lesser teams that get points off the top teams whilst it helps address the additional number of "easier" points available to Braehead.
Just an idea, whilst not perfect surely a decent working model?
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