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Post by dill1015 on Jul 14, 2018 15:11:47 GMT
As i said in another thread im going to do some goal predictions for the top teams to see where we are on paper.
All predictions are for league only over 60 games (someone correct me if im wrong). By my judgement the minimum number of goals a championship winning team will need is 210.
Panthers:
Billingsley - 11 Hughes - 3 Lee - 2 Lepine - 5 Olsen - 9 Import - ?
Betteridge - 7 Biggs - 18* Doty - 10 Farmer - 14 Guptil - 24 Henderson - 16 Kovacs - 17 Lacho - 10 Perlini - 21 Pither - 25 Rheault - 33** Import - ?
*Briggs is hard to judge cause of his AHL numbers being so low. This prediction assumed he was a role player in that league and focuses more on his ECHL numbers.
**Rheaults prediction ignores his last season which was a huge statistical blip. If its not a blip and a downward trend we'll be it trouble.
Total = 225
Minus 50 as players will not play all games so will not hit total number.
Currently i have us at 175 with 2 players to sign. As a minimum our last 2 guys need 35 goals betweem then.
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shinobi
Randall Weber
Forum Dictator
Posts: 4,668
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Post by shinobi on Jul 14, 2018 15:16:50 GMT
Biggs initially played wing & was moved to centre; I think he could be good for 15 - 20 this coming season.
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Post by wgray on Jul 14, 2018 15:17:51 GMT
I think the last two players will provide us a good chunk of creativity and goals. We are certainly relying on Rheault having a good season.
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Post by dill1015 on Jul 14, 2018 16:26:27 GMT
Sheffield:
Martinelli - 4 Matherson - 6 McFadden - 10 D. Phillips - 4 Import - ? Import - ?
Buzzeo - 17 Dowd - 24 Eberle - 22 Lawrence - 15 McGrath - 21 Owens - 20 J. Phillips - 6 Pitt - 31 Whistle - 3 Import - ? Import - ? Import - ?
Total = 183
Minus 50 for missed games puts Steelers on 133 with 5 guys to bring in.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2018 17:06:12 GMT
But with Sheffield defence and whistle I'd expect them to concede more
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Post by bobness on Jul 16, 2018 7:31:20 GMT
Point of order. Biggs. No "r".
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Post by dill1015 on Jul 16, 2018 8:22:40 GMT
Point of order. Biggs. No "r". Thank you
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Post by wgray on Jul 16, 2018 14:09:23 GMT
Point of order. Biggs. No "r". Thank you Are you doing Cardiff’s dill?
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Post by dill1015 on Jul 16, 2018 15:00:59 GMT
Are you doing Cardiff’s dill? Yes and belfasts when they get more players. Might do flames aswell as they look decent at a glance.
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Post by bobness on Jul 16, 2018 21:55:43 GMT
What will be genuinely interesting is to see where the predictions end up compared to the actual at the end of the season. Maybe interested parties should put their money where their mouth is and have a little wager for Panthers' charity?
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Gilly
Ashley Tait
Posts: 1,870
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Post by Gilly on Jul 17, 2018 14:33:34 GMT
if nothing else a little bit of fun, so here goes;
Billingsley - 8 Hazeldine - 0 Hughes - 4 Lee - 2 Lepine - 5 Olsen - 9 Tetlow - 1 Rissling 6
Betteridge - 6 Biggs - 16 Doty - 10 Farmer - 11 Guptill - 20 Henderson - 10 Kelsall - 1 Kovacs - 16 Lachowicz - 5 Perlini - 23 Pither - 24 Rheault - 22 Hurtubise - 21
Edit: Rissling Added Edit: Hurtubise added & amended for 60 game season
220 goals if i've added up right...
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Post by PantherB on Jul 17, 2018 17:23:02 GMT
Billingsley - 9 Hughes - 5 Lee - 3 Lepine - 4 Olsen - 7 Tetlow - 2 Hazeldine - 0
Defence - 30*
Betteridge - 9 Biggs - 13 Doty - 13 Farmer - 15 Guptil - 19 Henderson - 14 Kovacs - 19 Lacho - 9 Perlini - 23 Pither - 22 Rheault - 18 Kelsall - 1
Forwards - 175
Total = 205
No doubt be completely wrong but hey ho, one can hope the majority of our forwards score 10+!
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Post by Walitzer on Jul 20, 2018 8:28:01 GMT
Whilst I think point/goal predictions are fairly meaningless in reality. I like numbers. I took the historic point production of each Panthers player, factored in the level of play and style of play to produce a predicitive model of point production in the EIHL. My estimates: Player:
| Goals:
| Assists:
| Points:
| Brett Perlini
| 21
| 24
| 45
| Luke Pither
| 20
| 28
| 48
| Mark Hurtubise
| 20
| 23
| 43
| Alexander Guptil
| 20
| 22
| 42
| Jon Rheault
| 17
| 23
| 40
| Tyler Biggs
| 16
| 18
| 34
| Kevin Henderson
| 15
| 17
| 32
| Robert Farmer
| 14
| 23
| 37
| Justin Kovacs
| 12
| 25
| 37
| Jacob Doty
| 11
| 15
| 26
| Robert Lachowicz
| 8
| 11
| 19
| Tim Billingsley
| 6
| 17
| 23
| Jordan Kelsall
| 6
| 5
| 11
| Jaynen Rissling
| 5
| 18
| 23
| Dylan Olsen
| 5
| 15
| 20
| Oliver Betteridge
| 4
| 8
| 12
| Guilliame Lépine
| 3
| 9
| 12
| Stephen Lee
| 2
| 17
| 19
| Tommy Hughes
| 2
| 9
| 11
| Joseph Hazeldine
| 1
| 2
| 3
| Josh Tetlow
| 0
| 4
| 4
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| Total:
| 208
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| Forward Total:
| 184
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| Defense Total:
| 24
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Post by wgray on Jul 20, 2018 9:37:09 GMT
Whilst I think point/goal predictions are fairly meaningless in reality. I like numbers. I took the historic point production of each Panthers player, factored in the level of play and style of play to produce a predicitive model of point production in the EIHL. (Assuming all players remain fit season-long) My estimates: Player:
| Goals:
| Assists:
| Points:
| Brett Perlini
| 21
| 24
| 45
| Luke Pither
| 20
| 28
| 48
| Alexander Guptil
| 20
| 22
| 42
| Jon Rheault
| 17
| 23
| 40
| Tyler Biggs
| 16
| 18
| 34
| Kevin Henderson
| 15
| 17
| 32
| Robert Farmer
| 14
| 23
| 37
| Justin Kovacs
| 12
| 25
| 37
| Jacob Doty
| 11
| 15
| 26
| Robert Lachowicz
| 8
| 11
| 19
| Tim Billingsley
| 6
| 17
| 23
| Jordan Kelsall
| 6
| 5
| 11
| Jaynen Rissling
| 5
| 18
| 23
| Dylan Olsen
| 5
| 15
| 20
| Oliver Betteridge
| 4
| 8
| 12
| Guilliame Lépine
| 3
| 9
| 12
| Stephen Lee
| 2
| 17
| 19
| Tommy Hughes
| 2
| 9
| 11
| Joseph Hazeldine
| 1
| 2
| 3
| Josh Tetlow
| 0
| 4
| 4
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| Total:
| 188
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| Forward Total:
| 164
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| Defense Total:
| 24
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Over 60 league games?
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iginla
Chick Zamick
Posts: 13,374
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Post by iginla on Jul 20, 2018 10:20:53 GMT
Somebody’s got to score a lot more than that over 60 games or we’re in trouble unless the defence is as tight as a ducks backside ! Based on last years final league table 188 goals would have put Panthers 9th in scoring and this coming year there are 4 more games. To be up with Cardiff we would need to find another 60 ish goals from somewhere. 😳 And if our top scorer is only getting 48 points that would put him in about 45th place in last years scoring charts.
Nowhere near enough ! 😫
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Post by wannabe2 on Jul 20, 2018 10:36:22 GMT
We in Cardiff still have 5 signings to make, games between us guys are going to be barnburners, won’t be long now.
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Post by bobness on Jul 20, 2018 10:49:00 GMT
Interesting stuff, and it'd be good to see what these look like come end of season, see who really is the luckiest at pulling numbers out of a hat, but in a 60 game season, I'd expect Pither and Perlini to go at better than a point per game, and Olsen to score more than that. (The above has him matching his ECHL points from last year, basically, but Guptill falling well short of his ECHL stats). Pither scored at 79 point pace last year for over 1/3 of the season.
But we can argue about this all day, the effort is appreciated in doing such a prediction. Rheault, Biggs and Henderson remain big unknowns for me.
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Post by Walitzer on Jul 20, 2018 11:02:54 GMT
Whilst I think point/goal predictions are fairly meaningless in reality. I like numbers. I took the historic point production of each Panthers player, factored in the level of play and style of play to produce a predicitive model of point production in the EIHL. (Assuming all players remain fit season-long) My estimates: Player:
| Goals:
| Assists:
| Points:
| Brett Perlini
| 21
| 24
| 45
| Luke Pither
| 20
| 28
| 48
| Alexander Guptil
| 20
| 22
| 42
| Jon Rheault
| 17
| 23
| 40
| Tyler Biggs
| 16
| 18
| 34
| Kevin Henderson
| 15
| 17
| 32
| Robert Farmer
| 14
| 23
| 37
| Justin Kovacs
| 12
| 25
| 37
| Jacob Doty
| 11
| 15
| 26
| Robert Lachowicz
| 8
| 11
| 19
| Tim Billingsley
| 6
| 17
| 23
| Jordan Kelsall
| 6
| 5
| 11
| Jaynen Rissling
| 5
| 18
| 23
| Dylan Olsen
| 5
| 15
| 20
| Oliver Betteridge
| 4
| 8
| 12
| Guilliame Lépine
| 3
| 9
| 12
| Stephen Lee
| 2
| 17
| 19
| Tommy Hughes
| 2
| 9
| 11
| Joseph Hazeldine
| 1
| 2
| 3
| Josh Tetlow
| 0
| 4
| 4
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| Total:
| 188
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| Forward Total:
| 164
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| Defense Total:
| 24
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Over 60 league games? Yes, however I mistakenly added "Assuming all players remain fit season-long" and that is not an assumption I made, I factored in time-out through injury. I meant to say that I assumed in the prediciton that all players would play the full season at the Panthers and Ice every game they are fit.
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Post by PantherG on Jul 22, 2018 10:04:47 GMT
One of the guys on Steeltalk has a mate who works out the goals each season, apparently has a really good system is normally spot on. He has crunched the numbers for the entire league and Cardiff are way in front, with guys still to sign. If this is accurate we are desperately short on goals.
Cardiff 243 (18 players) Nottingham 211 (22 players) Manchester 199 (16 players) Glasgow 181 (18 players) Sheffield 180 (18 players) Guildford 168 (15 players) Belfast 150 (14 players) Coventry 122 (19 players) Fife 116 (7 players) Dundee 106 (11 players) Milton Keynes 90 (12 players)
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Doom
Greg Hadden
Posts: 1,591
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Post by Doom on Jul 22, 2018 12:51:52 GMT
One of the guys on Steeltalk has a mate who works out the goals each season, apparently has a really good system is normally spot on. He has crunched the numbers for the entire league and Cardiff are way in front, with guys still to sign. If this is accurate we are desperately short on goals. Cardiff 243 (18 players) Nottingham 211 (22 players) Manchester 199 (16 players) Glasgow 181 (18 players) Sheffield 180 (18 players) Guildford 168 (15 players) Belfast 150 (14 players) Coventry 122 (19 players) Fife 116 (7 players) Dundee 106 (11 players) Milton Keynes 90 (12 players) I wouldn't say it's a really good system, but he does put quite a lot of thought into it and uses historic data to create multipliers between various leagues. For example 1.2 from the ECHL to the EIHL, because historically players score 20% more in our league than the ECHL. When I had a bit more time on my hands i used to do something similar. I would think about 75% of my predictions were within 2 or 3 goals come the end of the season, but there were also a few howlers in there. The above totals were all calculated on the assumption that the players play the full 60 games. Based on past experience you need to knock around 20% off of those totals to get the actual team prediction. I know last season when he did it he had Cardiff comfortably ahead of the pack, unfortunately for the rest of us it looks the same again. One final thing to consider is the new league format, that's not factored into the above figures. My guess is that teams in our conference will score a bit more, whilst teams in the other two conferences will score a bit less. Regards Doom
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Post by wannabe2 on Jul 22, 2018 12:52:08 GMT
That don’t look great reading if it pans out,the thing is he usually gets pretty damn close. As we all know nothing is won on paper, things take many twists and turns during a season. I suppose time will tell.
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Post by Big Popper on Jul 22, 2018 21:30:53 GMT
There's a lot of predictions for goals scored but none that I can see for goals against. We seem to have a good defensive corps this year, just maybe a good defense can win the league with a fair goals for return.
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Post by Walitzer on Apr 29, 2019 14:42:47 GMT
Remembering this thread, I put together a quick and dirty excel table to compare our goal predictions vs how the season actually turned out. I gave 5 points for an accurate prediction and subtracted a point for each goal off target we were, I also voided data from players who did not start/finish the season and Rheault due to his long inury.
So congratulations Gilly, you are the smartest Panther in the cage!
I also included a more interesting column at the end, its unlabelled but it represents the goal-production in reality, compared to what we expected going into the season. A positive result meaning they exceeded expectations and vice versa.
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Post by PantherB on Apr 29, 2019 15:40:10 GMT
Lee and Lachowicz combining for 3 goals is an utter embarrassment.. holy moly.
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Post by bobness on Apr 29, 2019 17:03:57 GMT
Lee and Lachowicz combining for 3 goals is an utter embarrassment.. holy moly. Lee is a defensive defenceman though. His career EIHL season high for goals is 5. If you're going to pick an underachieving forward and D-man, how about Rheault and Olsen on pace for a full season total of 22 (12+10) goals combined. What this shows is that it's very hard to say what the team will do. But quite fun. I'll just bask in the glory of this one. "Rheault, Biggs and Henderson remain big unknowns for me."
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